PREPARE THE NEXT THROW

Make every sphere count.

Compare your setup across ten spheres. Change a target, weaken it, and see how the estimated odds move.

Your encounter

Target Pal · 288 recordsCapture sphere

HP remaining (%)Target levelModel input range: 1–60.

Statue of Power capture rankSphere module strengthOne strength group; bonuses are not stacked.

World capture multiplierPlanned throws

Modeled encounter eventsAlpha / field boss ×0.7 rate penaltyBack hold bonus +0.3 to the score before criticalCritical capture occurs What-if ×2 score, not the chance a critical occurs

Modeled estimate, not exact game odds. The reference model was calibrated against older v0.7.3 behavior and combines later sphere/event data. Native 1.0 placement is unrecovered. Capture immunity, status conditions and changing conditions are not modeled. Use the in-game aim display for your encounter.

ESTIMATED PER THROW

—

—after planned throws

—mean modeled throws

—total modeled power

Compare every sphere

Sphere estimates under the same selected conditions
Sphere	Power	Per throw	After 10 throws

First ten throws · cumulative estimate

Independent throws, with the same HP, level and settings throughout.

Throws	At least one capture

Import JSON

EXPLORE THE MODEL

A throw simulator

Sample the current estimate as an independent random throw. These are model samples, not game results or a prediction of your next throw.

No samples yet.

READ THE ESTIMATE

What the numbers mean

Cumulative odds use 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. They describe at least one success across unchanged, independent throws. A high cumulative estimate does not make the next throw more likely.

The mean is a long-run average, not a promised sphere budget. This model caps each throw at 99.5%. A positive estimate never proves that a scripted encounter is capturable.

Data and model notes ↗ · Find your target in Palpedia ↗